Mountain ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to global climate change. Increasingly frequent heatwaves and prolonged droughts have accelerated glacier retreat, leading to the depletion of water resources. For Central Asia, water scarcity presents a broad spectrum of threats, ranging from reduced hydroelectric power generation to declines in agricultural production — all of which are directly tied to the region’s food security.
The ongoing international climate conference in Bishkek is aimed precisely at finding solutions to mitigate the negative effects of global warming. In an interview with Kabar News Agency, Dr. Zhamin Akimaliev, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic and Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, spoke about the potentially devastating impact of a 1–2°C temperature rise on mountainous regions, and what steps are necessary for adapting to rapidly changing environmental conditions.
How serious is the situation with melting glaciers, and how would you describe it?
We are deeply concerned about the rapid changes in climate and the state of water resources. If we compare two periods — 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 — the average annual temperature across Kyrgyzstan increased by 1.6°C over the 20th century. Moreover, in the early 21st century, the warming trend has accelerated further. The most significant rise occurred in winter (+2.6°C), while the least warming was recorded in summer (+1.2°C). Unfortunately, it is clear that the temperature increase is no longer within the bounds of natural variability and has become a sustained trend.
At first glance, the observed increase in river runoff might seem positive. However, when we analyze the underlying causes, the situation is alarming: the increase is primarily due to accelerated glacier melting. In 1965–1974, Kyrgyzstan had 7,628 mountain glaciers covering 8,107 square kilometers. Today, only 5,237 glaciers remain, covering just 6,336 square kilometers. In other words, the so- called "perpetual" glaciers have shrunk by about 20% — an enormous and irreversible loss that will undoubtedly have severe consequences. Valley glaciers, whose tongues extend into lower elevations, are retreating at an especially rapid pace due to rising temperatures, with a high risk of complete disappearance. In higher-altitude regions (above 4,000 meters, such as Central Tien Shan and Khan Tengri Peak), the melting process is slower due to harsher climatic conditions.
River runoff is expected to continue increasing for another 15–20 years, after which a steady decline will begin. Particularly concerning is the projected reduction in river flows feeding key agricultural and populated valleys — Chui, Fergana, and Issyk-Kul. Similar challenges will soon confront all Central Asian countries. By 2050, the acute shortage of drinking and irrigation water could become the primary threat to stability — and even to survival — in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
How can Kyrgyzstan and the wider region adapt to these serious challenges?
In our arid zones, even under predominantly irrigated farming systems, food security is increasingly at risk. In Central Asia, about 90% of available freshwater is consumed by agriculture. Already today, we are witnessing a decline in crop yields due to global warming, with temperature increases affecting regions that are already hot and dry.
Thus, one major task for agricultural science is the development of drought-resistant crop varieties tailored to new environmental conditions. Fortunately, Kyrgyzstan has made progress in this regard, developing resilient local wheat varieties such as Aasyl, Tilek, and Kyial (winter wheat), and Araket, Kasiet, and Dank (spring wheat). Facultative wheat varieties like Intensivnaya and Dzhamin, and dryland wheat varieties such as Adyr, Kayrak, and EKHOL have also been introduced.
By contrast, wheat varieties bred in Russia often suffer from poor drought resistance and yield instability, while Kazakh varieties tend to be lower yielding overall. Developing a new wheat variety takes 8–10 years, but our local varieties have lifespans of up to 40 years, such as Intensivnaya. Imported varieties often deteriorate within 3–4 years. Therefore, the key strategy should be to supply our farmers and cooperatives with high-quality, locally developed seeds rather than flooding our fertile lands with unpredictable foreign varieties at the expense of the national budget.
International cooperation is also crucial. Through collaboration with ICARDA (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas), located in Syria’s arid zones, we successfully developed the Adel winter barley variety, capable of producing up to 7 tons per hectare.
Besides breeding drought-resistant crops, what other adaptation measures are needed?
Approximately 40% of Kyrgyzstan's arable land is considered arid. To enhance the productivity of these lands, grain-fallow crop rotations are crucial, with fallow fields ideally comprising 20% of the rotation. (*Note: "Clean fallow" is an agricultural technique where land is kept free from crops during the growing season and is regularly tilled to conserve soil moisture, accumulate nutrients, and control weeds.) Fallow fields serve as reservoirs for soil moisture, promote nitrogen accumulation, and help cleanse soils of weeds. Properly managed, they can boost winter wheat yields by 5–10 centners per hectare. Experiments are ongoing to incorporate legumes like soybeans, chickpeas, peas, and vetch into crop rotations. It has already been demonstrated that, under severe moisture deficits, clean fallow remains the most effective method, while in seasons with sufficient rainfall, legumes could partially replace fallow.
Kyrgyzstan's contribution to global climate change is relatively minor, yet its vulnerability is among the highest in Central Asia. Why is that?
Indeed, Kyrgyzstan’s global carbon footprint is small. First, the country is geographically limited in size; second, its industrial base is modest, and electricity generation primarily relies on hydropower. However, Kyrgyzstan ranks among the most vulnerable countries in Central Asia according to global vulnerability indices — due to its predominantly mountainous terrain and highly unpredictable environmental conditions.