Bishkek, Feb. 6, 2026 /Kabar/. According to preliminary data, Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in 2025—one of the highest growth rates in the world, National Bank Chairman Melis Turgunbaev said while commenting on the reasons for the accelerated growth and the specific development features of small open economies amid global instability.
According to him, the country’s economy also demonstrated strong growth in previous years: 9% in 2023 and 11.5% in 2024, based on updated data from the National Statistical Committee.
The head of the National Bank noted that Kyrgyzstan is classified as a small, open economy that is highly dependent on foreign trade and global financial flows. Any fluctuations in global markets—such as rising oil or food prices or disruptions in logistics—quickly affect inflation, the national currency exchange rate, and economic growth.
“Small economies are particularly sensitive to external shocks. If fuel or grain prices rise on global markets, the impact is felt almost immediately within the country,” Melis Turgunbaev emphasized.
He explained that countries like Kyrgyzstan are, in most cases, price takers: the republic imports a significant share of fuel, wheat, and other basic goods and has no influence over their prices. In addition, the small size of the domestic market means there is a limited margin of safety compared to larger economies.
According to the head of the National Bank, the high concentration of foreign trade remains an additional vulnerability. Kyrgyzstan’s main trading partners—Russia, Kazakhstan, and China—account for around half of its exports and nearly two-thirds of its imports.
At the same time, global turbulence also creates new opportunities. As Melis Turgunbaev noted, changes in trade routes and logistics amid sanctions pressure on Russia have led to a redistribution of business flows in the region. This has stimulated the development of logistics, warehouse infrastructure, transit operations, and the financial sector in Kyrgyzstan, which have become key drivers of accelerated growth.
The head of the National Bank identified three key areas that enable small, open economies to mitigate external shocks.
First is economic diversification. The development of processing industries, manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism, as well as the expansion of sales markets and energy sources under the National Development Strategy to 2030, reduces dependence on external fluctuations.
Second is macroeconomic discipline. As of the end of November 2025, the public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 43.49%, providing room for maneuver. It is important to use this buffer prudently by increasing reserves, keeping the budget deficit under control, and ensuring price stability.
Third is the quality of institutions. According to Melis Turgunbaev, long-term sustainability is determined by effective governance, transparent business rules, a stable banking system, protection of property rights, and regulatory independence, all of which increase trust and reduce social risks during periods of crisis.